SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES (SME)
- Small and medium enterprises (SME) play a major role in the economies of developing countries.
- However, about half of formal SMEs do not have access to formal credit. Access to finance is the key constraint on SME growth compared to large firms.
- To address this, the World Bank has taken the initiative to support innovative finance and improved credit infrastructure.
- This has resulted in generating increased level of fund for SMEs in the last decade.
- Formal SMEs contribute 40% of national income (GDP) in emerging economies
- 50% Global employment opportunities
SME LENDING
- In the context of growth in SME financing, there is a greater need on the part of lending institutions to mitigate risk.
- SME credit analysis produces a score indicating the probability of default of the borrowing entity.
- Having a credit rating not only helps SMEs go beyond obtaining a loan but also provides leverage to negotiate with suppliers for procuring durables, equipment, and raw materials.
SCORECARD DEVELOPMENT METHODS
- Expert scorecard Human subject matter expert
- Classical methods Generalized Linear Model (GLM)
- ML models Random Forest, Boosting
- Deep learning Neural network for classification
CASE STUDY 1
- A Bank in Indonesia had a newly acquired SME portfolio.
- The scoring model would be used for SME loan origination decisions
- This was a key component in scaling up operations in accordance with Indonesian government directives.
Solution
- The history of default was not well established with sparse data since the SME portfolio was new.
- The bootstrap method was used to overcome the limitation of a small sample.
- Business risk, financial risk, and moral risk were considered in the model.
- Reject-inference was successfully employed.
- High model performance achieved
Objective
- Application scorecard to facilitate SME loan origination decisions
Benefits
- Predictive modelling replaced gut feel
- Efficient process from instant scoring
- Consistent decision from adopting a mathematical model
CASE STUDY 2
- A lender in the UK finances a lease of office equipment to SME
- Rapid depreciation of leased assets does not make them a good choice for collateral.
- The lender used to cherry-pick customers who seldom went bad.
- The finance company wanted to expand its customer base while mitigating risk.
Solution
- Various default criteria were tested.
- Use of bureau data representing the status of SME (liquidation, insolvency, dissolution) to construct the default.
- Analyzed the types of SME business groups and the quality of dealers.
- Separate scorecards for full-account companies and micro entities
- Checked the quality and coverage of two different bureau data to assess the indeterminates (Not high or low score so no clear indication of Good or Bad)
Objective
- A scorecard to replace rule driven underwriting for better screening
Benefits
- Data-driven model replaced rule-based model
- Reduce underwrite workload by restricting scrutiny to fewer applications which get mid-level scores and not extreme scores
- Separate scorecard for micro entities ensured these entities are not penalized for lack of accounts data
CASE STUDY 3
- A multi-finance company in Indonesia provided loans to SMEs.
- The company did not have a fully developed data warehouse and loan origination system for SMEs.
- The bank had a policy of strict data security, whereby no data was to leave their server for analytics work.
Solution
- The data processing and modelling exercises were accomplished in-house with proprietary software for credit scoring.
- Separate scorecards were developed for four portfolios
- In the absence of a core banking system, webservice was created to input data and receive instant score.
- A database was created to store newly entered application data.
Objectives
- Multiple scorecards for various portfolios
- Link the scorecard to the core banking system to produce an instant score at the time of application.
Benefits
- Instant scoring of new applications improves efficiency in decision-making.
- Process automation ensured consistency, decreased manual work, and increased accuracy
- Monitoring of score performance from interactive reports generated from customized software